reflection on systemic governance

Systems thinking distinguish between three types of systemic governance or regulation: form maintaining, form creating and form destroying. It also stipulates that all three are required in any situation or system and that they need to be balanced appropriately to the specific context.

form creating regulation

This type of regulation leads to more of the same behaviour. The economic growth paradigm is driven by form creating governance – i.e. the more economic growth there is, the better it apparently is for society or organisation. Another example of this type of regulation are economic stimulation packages.

Form creation also governs the finance system. The more trading occurs, the more money can be made (hence the shift to computer based trading). Bank bailouts and performance bonuses are another example of this type of governance. After the trillions were thrown at the banking sector during the 2009 finance crisis, banks that did not trade in derivatives have jumped on the bandwagon since (e.g. in South Africa which weathered the crisis relatively well due to stringent credit criteria and the absence of derivative trading). The bank bailouts continue. The bailout of the Bank of Scotland amounted to double the education budget of the country.

If unchecked by form maintaining and form destroying governance, the form creating one has a fly-wheel effect. It tends to spin out of control, as is indeed demonstrated by increasing global industrialisation and the financial trading frenzy.

form maintaining regulation

I would argue that the current economic growth paradigm, as well as the finance paradigm, lack form maintaining governance (it was significantly reduced with the deregulation of financial markets in the 1980s; more recently, some form maintaining regulation was introduced again, albeit as yet insufficient to prevent more finance crises in the future).

In the context of a national economy, the form maintaining governance includes austerity measures and budget controls (e.g. staying within budget limits). From a systemic perspective, one would also consider limiting growth at the expense of other systems (e.g. society, or the planet).

In a financial context, it could imply the regulation and taxation of trading, limiting the money creating ability of banks, as well as exploring the ethical question of limiting the banking sector to get rich at the expense of tax payers and small scale investors.

form destroying regulation

This refers to regulation, laws and sanctions aimed at wiping out wrongful economic behaviour (e.g. illegal trade, corruption). It could also lead to eliminating or fundamentally changing (transforming) systems that destroy other systems or grow at their expense (those that are unsustainable in terms of planetary limits, exploit people and societies; or irresponsible financial behaviour).

Unfortunately, instead of form destroying governance we see form creating one (the bank bailouts and performance bonuses in the financial sector).

balance

There is currently a big debate how these three types of regulation should be balanced and implemented. We believe that the systemic distinction of governance could in-form this debate and lead to additional better insights.

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reflection on the financial paradigm

Looking at the question Does investing systemically create more value for the dollar than a linear system?  from a financial perspective, the following comes to my mind as a systems thinker (not as a finance expert, which I am not):

If by investing we refer to the conventional financial trading approach, I would assume that the algorithms used involve feedback loops that are typically associated with current future related systems dynamics models (i.e. the identifying and forecasting of patterns; the more recent the information that updates the pattern, the more accurate is the forecast likely to be, due to the momentum inherent in the current situation). Some may call this systemic. Does this create more value per dollar invested? I should think that one would make more money this way. Is any value created? Only in monetary terms; no value in terms of the real economy (i.e. of goods and service production) is created this way. One could even argue that more negative value for the real economy has been created – i.e. another step towards the next finance crisis that will impact negatively on the economy.

If by systemic we mean multi-dimensional development (especially if we can solve the measurement problem mentioned in the economic growth section) and if we start measuring impacts and co-production (instead of merely production), we would certainly create more value in terms of development for society and natural systems. But will we be able to measure this in dollars? And will that create more economic growth in the short-term, or at all? I don’t know. We would need to explore this (using fuzzy logic measures, perhaps).

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reflection on law of diminishing returns and opportunity costs

The law of diminishing returns states that adding more of one factor of production (while keeping others constant) will at some point yield lower per unit returns. While this seems to hold true in the context of material production processes, it begs the question if this is true in the context of information resources added to the production process in general and to that of information products or services specifically. Could in this context the law of diminishing returns become one of increasing returns?

And what about the concept of opportunity cost (i.e. the cost of an activity measured in terms of an alternative not chosen)?  It relates scarcity to choice and apparently ensures the efficient use of scarce resources. Yet information is rarely scarce. Also, the same units of information can be used at the same time in different production processes. We do not need to choose between them.

Are these concepts still universally relevant in the context of the economy relating to information, or are they only relevant to material production as a special case within a wider economic paradigm (e.g. physical production which dominated the agrarian and industrial ages)?  Do we need to extend our economic theory to make it relevant for the information age? Has the bursting of the dot com bubble been an example of applying the wrong paradigm?

The question Does investing systemically create more value for the dollar than a linear system? could be related to the above, since the essence of systems thinking relates to emergence (i.e. the arising of new properties from interacting parts at the level of the whole). The interaction of production factors co-produces the emergence of the value of the product (e.g. as measured quantitatively or qualitatively). This is also true in the production of material goods. If we operate profitably, this value is of course greater than that of the sum of the values of the parts (if we use the current economic growth related measures). This value may, however, increase multi-fold in the context of information, due to its abundant, win / win and synergistic nature.

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reflection on mei

Everything we observe consists of mei (i.e. matter, energy and information).

There is a difference in the properties or qualities associated with material, energy and information resources which is (or should be) of relevance to our economic theory as it is concerned with the production and exchange of goods and services.

As we move further into the information age, the importance of information as a resource, means of production and as embedded in our goods and services increases. Its unique properties make its exchange and production different from those of matter and energy.

Information is synergistic by nature, allowing win / win and giving rise to emergence. If shared, one does not lose it. If exchanged, new information can arise that was not there in the exchanging parties (i.e. it is synergistic). It is also abundant (even infinite?). To ensure harnessing these qualities requires the sharing of information.

Matter and energy do not have these properties. For example, dividing material resources (e.g. a piece of land) between us is a zero sum, win / lose game in which either you or I own all or nothing, or each of us owns a part of it. Also, material resources are finite, hence scarce.  Securing them requires competition.

The properties of energy as we use it are similar. Although energy is potentially infinite, the types of energy we utilise currently to run our economic production are finite, either in terms of the material from which we extract it or the processors used in harnessing, distributing and using it. It is therefore also a win / lose and zero sum game.

This distinction could affect the economic concepts of diminishing returns and opportunity costs, amongst others.

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how to explore economic theory from a systemic perspective

I would suggest that one could start with some reflections (e.g. involving a PhD or Master student, or a team of economics students) on systems thinking and economic theory. For example, one could reflect on

  1. the various concepts that make up economic theory from the perspective of Biomatrix Systems Theory (exemplified by the posts on the law of diminishing returns and opportunity cost, economic growth and the market and financial paradigm)
  2. the implication of the various concepts of Biomatrix Systems Theory for economic theory (as shown by the posts on mei, limits, systemic governance and the distinction between physical and conceptual reality).

The output from these two types of inquiries could reveal some patterns that can be explored further.

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reflection on the market paradigm

The growing popularity of the market as an arbiter of economic decision-making verges on reification. The first comment in many public media after an unusual event is “how did the market react?” To whom does a short-term up or down movement around a longer-term trend really matter, except to financial traders?

From a systemic perspective, a serious problem with market thinking is its logic of a bottom up causality (which incidentally is also prevalent in the political paradigm of majority decision-making). It rests on the belief that the sum total of decisions that serve the benefit of an individual system automatically benefits the collective. Instead, we observe increasing inequalities. Market thinking (e.g. the market wants it) also drives linear economic growth, consumerism, a short-term orientation and unsustainable economic behaviour.

Biomatrix Systems Theory speaks of the emerging middle: the systems at each level are co-produced by systems from outer and inner levels, as well as itself. For example, the finance crisis is an emergence – we could call it huge negative value for societies – that arises from the selfish decisions of its financial parts, the perpetuation of the market philosophy which inspires and reinforces the individual behaviour and the nature of the top-down regulation (or absence thereof). Thus changing the current market paradigm requires redesign across levels – to push current market philosophy from its pedestal.

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reflection on limits

All material growth and material development has to reach limits inherent in the outer and inner environment of the system. These limits are derived from the carrying capacity of natural systems. A systemic definition of sustainability would be staying within the limits of the carrying capacity.

Our growth obsessed economic paradigm drives humanity to overshoot various limits, resulting in resource depletion, climate change, desertification, shortage of resource, extinction of species, stress and disease, amongst others.

Should a systemic economic theory consider limits, as well as the negative value created by exceeding them? How can sustainability be incorporated into an economic theory? How can return on sustainable and unsustainable investment be separated, accounted for and measured?

If continued growth and development are to be sustained (e.g. because the population keeps growing), the production of goods and services needs to be transformed in order to stay within the given limits. For example, if we need more energy, we need to shift from non-sustainable to sustainable sources of energy. In this context we need to note that (non-)renewable and (non-)sustainable is not necessarily the same. For example, biodiesel is a renewable source of energy. However, its production is not sustainable in most regions of the world, given the increasing demand for food and pressure on the environment.

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reflection on economic growth

In the 1980s, the famous systems thinker R. L. Ackoff wrote about his concern about our obsession with economic growth, the difference between growth (an increase in size) and development (an increase in quality) and that there can be development without growth. He also proposed that the purpose of a business organisation should be the development of stakeholders, not merely growth as measured by financial return on investment for its shareholders. Our economic thinking regarding growth does not seem to have changed since.

Current economic theory is based on growth. It measures growth, not development. Growth is one-dimensional (i.e. the increase in size of a variable – e.g. profits, costs, units of production). It is measured quantitatively, while development is multi-dimensional. Equally problematical (from a development perspective) is the focus on short-term growth and ROI.

Dare we suggest that the current economic growth obsession not only drives continuing growth (much of it being unsustainable) but also discourages (if not kills) development?

At least two systemic concerns come to mind immediately, that of governance and of measurement.

measurement

It is a systemic rule of thumb that what we measure, evaluate and reward, we bring about. What we don’t or can’t measure, we tend to neglect.

Since growth is easy to measure, we value it, reinforce it and build economic theory around it. Development is not as easy to measure. One can illustrate this with the Persian proverb which states that “Poverty is not a lack of things, but a lack of beauty”. The (lack of) things can be objectively measured by economic growth, while beauty (like other intangible qualities such as dignity, happiness, ethics or creativity) is an attribute of development. These attributes are also quite subjective. We typically try to objectify the measurement of such qualities by some growth related indicators (e.g. the price of a painting, the number of court cases on corruption, the number of patents filed). These types of measures are referred to as social indicators. They are a crude approximation of measuring development and often miss the essence, as the Persian proverb suggests. By using them as measures, we may well loose the essence of development. Yet development may be more important than growth (as also hinted at by the proverb).

The growth versus development issue is also the dilemma of the triple bottom line, which refers to development, but is limited by what is measurable (e.g. the social indicators).

The development paradigm requires different value currencies than the money and quantity driven values of the growth paradigm. As an additional thought: could the use of fuzzy logic (possibly linked to statistics in order to reduce subjectivity) get us closer to the measurement of development?

From a systemic perspective, there is another problem associated with the measurement of economic growth: that of measurement based on co-production and mutual impacts.  Examples are the impacts of a production process on the planet (e.g. pollution, using scarce resources) or society (e.g. a society burdened by unemployment and unused infrastructure left behind by a company relocated to another country – in the name of increasing the efficiency of its production).

Put differently: we only measure the cost of production, not that of co-production and impact. Thus we do not measure the true cost of a product. We measure it only at one level and not across levels in the containing systems hierarchy (e.g. to the planet, society, other organisations, employees, their health and well-being).

We also do not measure positive impacts (e.g. who benefits by the economic growth of the organisation, national and international economy). Thereby we would be able to identify who benefits by our current economic practice (e.g. the trickle to the poor and the gushing river to the rich; the country of production or transnational elites). The latter example raises the question if some of the concepts of current economic theory would change if considered in the context of globalisation (i.e. are they derived from observation of a national or regional economy)?

Coming back to the question Does investing systemically create more value for the dollar than a linear system?, the answer depends on what you mean by systemic and by value?

If we mean by value the conventional return on investment, we argue from the current traditional, growth-driven economic paradigm.

If we argue from a systemic economic paradigm (which does not exist yet, or at best in fragments), why the reference to monetary value? The development related values which would be incorporated into a systemic economic paradigm are not measurable in dollars in essence (merely by indication). We have not developed other value currencies.

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new economic theory

I have been recently asked about contributing some ideas to development of new economic theory, more specifically: Does investing systemically create more value for the dollar than in a linear system? 

I have put together a few initial thoughts on a new economic theory from a systems perspective, splitting them into the following sections.

 new economic theory

how to explore economic theory from a systemic perspective
– reflection on mei
– diminishing returns and opportunity costs
– reflection on economic growth
– reflection on limits
– reflection on the market paradigm
– reflection on the financial paradigm

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